Division I Men’s Qualifying Scenarios: A Plum Opportunity

NEW ORLEANS – Did you know that William Carlos Williams was the original Run Junkie? Chapter 7 of the good doctor/poet/plum junkie’s  autobiography is titled “To Run,” and it describes the typical athletic career of the jock-turned-scribe: “Run, run, run, that’s all I wanted to do, and win, always—but it was no go.  I wasn’t the fastest.”  So I’m sure he wouldn’t mind us appropriating his most famous work for the vital purposes of an NCAA cross country regionals preview.

The Kolas Wheelbarrow

so much depends
upon

the midwest
region

and virginia and north
carolina

starting the push
process.

Regional Championships Info Division I Regionals Overviews MEN | WOMEN Breaking Down NCAA Qualifying Scenarios MEN | WOMEN Can’t be at any regional championship meets this weekend? Will you be at one and want to contribute to the national conversation? Check out the USTFCCCA National Results Wall! Want to hear what some of this weekend’s biggest players have to say? Give the USTFCCCA QA₂ Max Podcast a listen!

Thanks, Bill! Let’s check out the spokes. LetsRun has a nice breakdown that applies the NCAA formula to the regional rankings, and Flotrack has essentially ranked the regions themselves for their projections for their projections of the 62 qualifying teams. We actually did so without the benefit of a computer program¹; as Joe Franklin points out, doing so was less pleasant than waking up to a plum-less icebox.

The idea of this piece is that for qualifying purposes, everything is connected.  For a step back from the big picture and an overview of each of the regions this weekend, check out our men’s overview and our women’s overview.

The methodology behind the piece is applying the qualifying formula for each team’s accumulated wins (we’re going to use “wins” and “points” interchangeably, as does the NCAA manual) to this point, using the regional rankings as chalk results.  Here’s every point  that every team in the country has scored, more or less.  The points in blue are over teams projected to qualify ahead of each team based on the regional rankings; the points in red are not points if the regional results fit the rankings exactly, but could come into play with any variance from that.

If this wasn’t enough work already, we went ahead and did the same thing for the women’s field. Check that out here.

All 31 spots for NCAAs will be decided in nine races across the country on Friday.  Of course you should follow along with us at the Results Wall and watch Flotrack’s live show.  Roughly fifty teams are doing their sharpening workouts this week with reasonable dreams of making nationals. 

The Locks

There are essentially two categories of locks; both categories of teams have nothing at stake at regionals.  The first group includes teams that simply will not finish outside of the top two on Friday.  Those teams are: Wisconsin, Villanova, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Syracuse, Iona, Florida State, Arkansas, and Texas.  The second group includes teams that might not automatically qualify, but have racked up so many points that even the most disastrous days would end with them pushing teams in.  Those teams are: Michigan, Georgetown, Northern Arizona, Oregon, Portland, Stanford, Providence and Washington.

Loser Leaves Town

Friday’s only zero-sum game will take place in Tallahassee.  Auburn only lost to Mississippi by 17 at SECs, so the Tigers can very reasonably dream of beating the Rebels for the South’s second AQ slot.  The team that finishes third will not be going to Terre Haute.

In addition to the obvious reason that Ole Miss is the favorite—they finished one spot ahead of Auburn at SECs last week—the Tigers have another factor working against them: they are who we think they are. 

Their performances at Panorama Farms and the SEC meet were nearly identical, with a huge gap from Ty McCormack to Kane Grimster and then a smaller but significant gap from Grimster to Redatu Semeon, Griffin Jaworski, and Niklas Buhler.  (Even though the courses were different lengths, the quintet even ran very similar times at the two meets)  There are three ways to look at this lack of undulations in Auburn’s season curve:

1. Auburn is extremely consistent; therefore they won’t step up and beat Mississippi.
2. Auburn is extremely consistent; therefore they’re well-positioned to take advantage if Mississippi has a bad day.
3. It’s a small sample size.  Enjoy the race!

Sadly, that’s our only win-or-go-home men’s race of the year.  One of those two teams qualifying plus the sixteen locks mentioned above leaves us with the rest of the country fighting for three AQs and eleven at-large spots. One auto and possibly one at-large will come out of…

The Midwest

Going into the meet, Tulsa, Oklahoma and Iowa State hold spots two through four in the regional rankings.  Oklahoma is clearly (if narrowly) better than ISU, having beaten them twice this fall.  But it’s unclear which second-best team in the state of Oklahoma.  Check out their respective CVs.

Tulsa’s significant wins: Colorado State, Texas, Mississippi, Penn State x2, NC State

Oklahoma’s significant losses: Arkansas, Michigan State, Indiana, BYU

Oklahoma’s significant wins²: Washington, Indiana, Iowa State x2, Texas, North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, Boise State, Princeton

Tulsa significant losses: NC State, Princeton, Colorado State, Southern Utah, Eastern Kentucky

In sum: Oklahoma hasn’t lost to anyone that’s lost to Tulsa, while Tulsa has lost to two teams that Oklahoma’s beaten. 

In fact, regional No. 4 Iowa State also beat Princeton and EKU at Wisco.  The Hurricanes finished behind that duo at Notre Dame.  Iowa State only lost to OU by 15 at the Big 12 meet, so Martin Smith’s boys certainly aren’t conceding a national berth. The three teams could plausibly finish in any order.

If they go chalk, i.e., Tulsa, OU, ISU: Tulsa is in, OU gets an at-large, Iowa State is out.  With wins over Villanova, Texas, and Washington guaranteeing the Sooners three points, and wins over Eastern Kentucky and North Carolina making at least one and possibly two (if both qualify and neither is pushed³) more points likely, Jason Dunn’s squad is sitting pretty. In fact, even if Iowa State gets the second automatic spot, that still benefits Oklahoma, as they would leave regionals with no more than four and possibly up to six points.

Again on chalk, Michigan State and Indiana are currently the first two teams out of nationals. Because of how the Spartans’ and Hoosiers’ points are lined up—like Oklahoma, both Big Ten squads would benefit points-wise if North Carolina or Iowa State qualified via non-push—it’s nearly impossible for either to jump Oklahoma as long as the Sooners finish in the top four on Friday.  The Sooners are practically assured of qualifying. (MSU and Indiana do have clearer paths to Terre Haute; more on them later)

Tulsa and Iowa State have a combined three points on chalk, though Iowa State could pick up one more if North Carolina automatically qualifies. Their safest path outside of automatically qualifying is for both to beat Oklahoma; one will then almost certainly get pushed in. 

Sparknotes: Oklahoma will very likely be the last team in from this region.  If they finish second, the region gets two; if they finish third, the region gets three; if they finish fourth, the region gets four. 

There is one mildly unlikely scenario in which Oklahoma finishes second and Tulsa gets an at-large in third place: if North Carolina loses to Furman, NC State, and Virginia—the latter lost to the Heels at ACCs—then Tulsa has enough points to get in, and no one gets pushed in by from the Southeast.

The Undergraduates

You know, not quite Masters? These teams are just shy of locks.  Either they have a ton of projected points, but those points have a glass jaw, or, they’ve shown enough shakiness that they’re at risk of finishing too far back at regionals.

The teams in the first category are Virginia, Eastern Kentucky, New Mexico, BYU, Colorado State, and Southern Utah. Half of Virginia’s points come beating from Furman, who has never qualified for nationals, and Iona, which may not end up counting as an A squad win. And while the other five teams are projected for a seemingly rock-solid 24 points between them, fully half of those points are projected under the highly debatable assumptions that NC State and Tulsa automatically qualify. 

New Mexico and BYU are in the drivers’ seat.  They’ve both beaten Oklahoma, so even if they lose the Tulsa point, they replace it.  The duo have also beaten each other, so whoever finishes second out of the two at regionals will likely end up with an additional point.

The Lobos pounded Air Force and Colorado State at their conference meet 26-73-76 last week, so it’s hard to imagine them losing to one of those two teams (at home!) on Friday. Even if Tulsa and NC State miss the meet, if New Mexico and BYU finish third and fourth (in either order), one will have at least four points and the other will have five.  They’re almost certainly in. 

The next four spots in the Mountain are much less clear. We’ll cover them in more detail in the Cinderellas section.

Remember those two categories of not-quite-locks? The second was teams that have shown just enough shakiness that while their points are trustworthy, their results aren’t.  In that group of teams is UCLA; Eastern Kentucky is shaky in both realms.  UCLA has eight wins (nine if Oklahoma autos), but if they repeat their Pac-12 run, the Bruins risk getting locked out of nationals.  Last week in Oakland, they beat Arizona State by 12 points.  ASU lost to Boise State at Wisconsin, but neither has any wins. (Boise State was seven points away from getting two at the Mountain West meet) If both ASU and BSU beat UCLA, the season is over for all three.  If just one beats UCLA, that team gets pushed in and the West gets six teams.  If neither beats UCLA, the Bruins make it and the West is capped at five.

The Cinderellas

Alternatively, the Icarus Cinderelli; this group is flying damn close to the sun this weekend, as all of them are too short on points to qualify that way.  North Carolina, Air Force, Princeton, Penn State, and Weber State all control their own destinies.  UNC is ranked third in the Southeast; they finished five points behind NC State and 26 ahead of Virginia at the ACC meet.  The Heels’ realistic routes to Terre Haute include snagging one of the two auto spots or getting pushed in by Virginia.  They have the best shot out of this group.

Air Force and Weber State both have an excellent chance of getting pushed in.  AFA beat Colorado State the last time they raced, and Weber State finished just one point behind Southern Utah at their conference meet.  Like in the West, the nightmare situation is both of these teams beating one of the points-laden schools. Repeat after me: only one team can get pushed in per region. 

Assuming Colorado, Northern Arizona, New Mexico, and BYU take the first four spots, the next three places in the Mountain could replace anywhere between zero and three teams.  Here’s what those four teams need to do to qualify. The underlying assumption is that Southern Utah and Colorado State will at least be in the top 7, and that Air Force and Weber will be in the top 8:

Southern Utah: beat one of Weber State or Air Force
Colorado State: beat one of Weber State or Air Force
Air Force: finish 6th or better, and have Weber State finish 8th or worse
Weber State: finish 6th or better, and have Air Force finish 8th or worse

(Of course, the even deeper assumption is that SUU/CSU’s points will hold up.  As covered above, if NC State and/or Tulsa don’t qualify, these two teams are in some trouble)

LetsRun lays out the case for Penn State and Princeton.  If one or both of those teams beats Georgetown, they’re probably in.

The Outsiders

We’ve covered the bubble situations of Princeton, Penn State, Iowa State, Boise State, Arizona State, Weber State, and Auburn.  But the two best teams left out by projections are Michigan State and Indiana.

Right now, the Hoosiers only have one projected win over the first 30 teams in (wins against team #31, currently Oklahoma, do no good), coming when they beat Arkansas at Wisco. And the Spartans have the same Arkansas point, plus a win over Texas at Roy Griak. But results from around the nation could cause those totals to skyrocket.

Here’s the path for both teams to Terre Haute.  If Oklahoma and North Carolina automatically qualify, both teams are up to four points. (That would put them in a tie among teams on the board with New Mexico and Washington) If Michigan State beats Indiana, the Hoosiers would be up to six points, and both would make the meet no matter what.

Michigan State could then be in a tiebreaker with Washington, New Mexico, Providence, Eastern Kentucky, or Oklahoma. Even if the Spartans lose tiebreakers with all five of those teams, Indiana’s six points would push MSU in.

If both teams get what they need from other regions, but Indiana beats Michigan State, both teams would start the at-large process with four points. Currently, no four-point teams are left out, but depending on how many pushes happen in other regions, that outcome could lock out one or both of the B1G teams.

In sum: Michigan State, Indiana, Princeton, Penn State, Iowa State, Boise State, Arizona State, Weber State, and Auburn are the outside of the bubble.  North Carolina, Virginia, Air Force, Eastern Kentucky, Colorado State, Southern Utah, UCLA, Tulsa, Mississippi are the teams that they’re looking to knock out.

Not to sanctimoniously use the p-word, but those 18 teams—and the other 23 who are more comfortably situated—are running for the most pure reasons possible on Friday.  They’re not running to win, or to set a record, or even to beat anyone.  They’re just racing with the desperate hope that they get to race again.