The NCAA Championships’ Tightest Match-Ups – As Voted On By You

EUGENE, Oregon – It’s incredibly difficult to win national titles at the NCAA Division I Outdoor Track & Field Championships. Between 21 men’s events and 21 women’s events, there are a combined 1,008 entries into the NCAA Championships – only two percent of whom will go home as national champions.

As if just those numbers weren’t enough, there’s, of course, the heated world-class competition at the top of each event.

Using data from the USTFCCCA’s "Pick The Champ" college track & field championships prediction contest, we’ve identified nine events that are going to be particularly spicy. Each of these events are listed with the top contenders and the percentage of entrants who picked them as champs.

Plus, Dennis Young and Kyle Terwillegar of the USTFCCCA Communications staff give their brief insights for each.

Haven’t made your picks yet? Time is running out, as entries only remain open through the start of the women’s heptathlon at 2pm ET on Wednesday.

Click the button below to make your picks, and then follow along live as the Championships are broadcast on the ESPN family of platforms (TV and online).

But before you make your picks, take a look at some of the most tightly contested events -as voted by entrants before you – below, listed in chronological order with how/when you can watch on ESPN’s platforms.

Men’s Hammer Throw

Final: Wednesday, 4:30pm ET on ESPN3 (Online)

Dennis’ Take: Mike Lihrman of Wisconsin broke the national record in the weight throw indoors.  Purdue’s Chukwuebuka Enekwechi beat Lihrman at the Big 10 meet.  USC’s Conor McCullough has the best mark in the nation this year.  And oh yeah—Kent State’s Matthias Tayala is the defending national champion. Lihrman and McCullough have both gone over 74 meters twice, and no one else in the field has thrown farther than 72.77 meters. McCullough’s consistency gives him the slight edge over Lihrman, but if we’re considering the possibility that Lihrman is going to win, we have to consider Enekwechi (beat Lihrman a month ago) and Tayala (beat everyone a year ago) as real possibilities to win.

Kyle’s Take: McCullough will be hungry for a title, having been denied the indoor weight throw crown in the sixth and final round. The denier? That’d be Lihrman, who has motivation of his own after getting upset at the Big Ten Championships by Purdue’s Chukwuebuka Enekwechi. This will be a tight one, just like indoors and like their current standings on the national list (separated by less than two feet), but look for McCullough to get the title that has long eluded him.

Men’s High Jump

Final: Friday, 7pm ET on ESPN3 (Online)

Dennis’ Take: JaCorian Duffield of Texas Tech and Bryan McBride of Arizona State come in separated by only a centimeter in what could be the closest men’s event of the meet.  The winner here will be the Division I champion, but they’ll have to jump 2.32 meters to be unquestionably the best high jumper in the NCAA.  Jeron Robinson of Division II Texas A&M-Kingsville has jumped 2.31 meters this year—equal to Duffield’s lifetime best and a centimeter higher than McBride’s.

Whatever they jump, this is a rare battle between the reigning indoor champ (Duffield) and the reigning outdoor champ (McBride) in an event.

Kyle’s Take: The classic defending indoor champion vs. defending outdoor champion match-up, as Duffield is the reigning winter winner while McBride broke through at this meet a year ago. Duffield carried his indoor form into the final week of March for his season-best 7-7 (2.31m) mark, but McBride has gone nearly as high much more recently with 7-6.5 (2.30m) in May. Look for the Sun Devil senior to bounce back from a disappointing 15th-place finish indoors in a big way.

Men’s Javelin Throw

Final: Wednesday, 8pm ET on ESPN3 (Online)

Dennis’ Take: As the Register-Guard’s Chris Hansen points out, the laid-back Crouser loves to leave it late. He’s won several meets on his sixth and final throw.  We’d gladly trade some stress on Oregon hearts for a second straight year of an unexpectedly thrilling javelin.  Kentucky’s Raymond Dykstra was leading before that sixth throw last year; he’s back again. The other major contenders include John Ampomah of Middle Tennessee State and Ioannis Kyriazis of Texas A&M.  Ampomah is the national leader by over two meters, but anything can happen in the javelin, where mystical-sounding wind pockets can apparently really lead to huge PRs.

Kyle’s Take: Ampomah may be the collegiate leader at 267-7 (81.55m) by nearly nine feet over Crouser, but that’s the only throw of his that’s superior to Crouser’s No. 2 259-0 (78.94m). The Ducks is the defending champ, knows how to come up clutch if need be – he won the title in the final round a year ago – and has been the more consistent of the two in 2015.

Women’s Pole Vault

Final: Thursday, 7:45pm ET on ESPN3 (Online)

Dennis’ Take: This is the best event of the meet. Duh.  If the matchup between Demi Payne and Sandi Morris actually materializes—unlike indoor nats, where Payne no-heighted—we could see some gamesmanship.  Will Payne and Morris agree to shoot for big heights once they’re the only two left? Or will one elect to grind it out through a progression of lesser heights, wearing the other down for a national title? Both appear to be in perfect form—the last time each jumped before the NCAA prelims, they broke the collegiate record—and they’ve essentially had a month of rest interrupted only by light vaulting in Austin to qualify. This should be epic.

Kyle’s Take:This is by far the most up-in-the-air event at the NCAA Championships (it’s nearly three times as high as the high jump. Get it? Thank you, I’m here all week). But all kidding aside, this will be a seriously ruthless competition. Once it’s down to these two (and it likely will be, as the on-again, off-again collegiate record holders are at least 20cm clear of the rest of the field), then the fun really starts. Don’t expect another no-height mishap from Payne, as she’s been on her game of late with collegiate records just weeks apart in April and May. Of course, Morris topped both of those records at the SEC Championships.

Payne won their last match-up at the Drake Relays handily, but such an easy win will not be forthcoming this weekend. In a competition that may well come down to misses, Payne will claim a narrow win somewhere in the 10cm between 4.60m and 4.70m, befuddling Bowerman Trophy voters everywhere.

Women’s 10,000

Final: Thursday, 9:38pm ET on ESPN

Dennis’ Take: Dominique Scott is doing something we rarely see at an NCAA championship: she’s hunting for a title outside of the one she can obviously win.  Scott is unquestionably the best 3000 meter runner in the NCAA and would likely have the best speed out of anyone fresh for the  5000.  But in a quest to help Arkansas win the team title, she’s doubling in the 10k and 5k in Eugene. She beat every collegian entered in the Stanford Invitational 10k, but defending 10k champ Emma Bates has run less than two seconds slower than Scott’s PB.  Scott and Bates each ran a 5k and a 10k at the two Stanford meets, but in the reverse order, meaning how they match up against each other is a bit of a question mark.

Kyle’s Take: Dominique Scott has been the darling of distance running in 2015, winning the indoor 3000 and anchoring the winning distance medley relay for some NCAA Championships hardware (both of which likely paled in comparison to the hardware she received from her now-fiance after winning the 3k). Frankly, she’s already dodged a bullet outdoors when collegiate leader Emily Sisson of Providence opted to focus on the 5000, but there will be no shortage of talent looking to take the top spot. Most notably, defending champion Emma Bates of Boise State will look to end her career with a successful title defense.

Both will be doubling back for the 5000 on Saturday, so don’t look for a quick race. It will likely come down to a sprint finish, and it’s hard to go against one of the best milers in the collegiate ranks. Scott outkicks the field for the win.

Men’s 1500

Final: Friday, 7:45pm ET on ESPN

Dennis’ Take: This is perhaps the most wide-open event of the entire meet.  Montana State’s Cristian Soratos is the top returner from 2015 indoors, Jordy Williamsz is the only man in the field who has ever outkicked Edward Cheserek (he’s also the entirety of the first two pages of Google results if you search for “Williamsz”), and Chad Noelle has the fastest regular season time and prelim round time. Those three have to be considered the nominal favorites. Beyond the big three, Air Force’s Zach Perkins is the top returner from 2013 (second that year) and New Mexico’s Peter Callahan is the top returner from last year (fourth).

Villanova has had thirteen winners in the men’s 1500/mile at outdoor NCAAs, more than any other men’s program in any other distance event.  If Williamsz is in good position late, look for that number to increase.

Kyle’s Take: Not only is this race wide-open, but it’s also filled with savvy racers. Soratos famously tried to take down Edward Cheserek in the indoor NCAA mile by running sub-3:50 pace for three-quarters of the race before finishing runner-up, while Williamsz did take down Cheserek in the Penn Relays 4xMile with the exact opposite strategy: borderline racewalk for a portion of the race and then outkick him in the final 300 meters.

Creese is a multiple-time Penn Relays champ himself, while Winn and Noelle were fifth and sixth indoors in the mile this year. But in a race that will likely come down to a kick, it’s hard to top Soratos and Williamsz. Those two will duel down to the line, with Soratos taking the win in a photo finish.

Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

Final: Saturday, 5:27pm ET on ESPN2

Dennis’ Take: The fans are showing a lot of respect for Colleen Quigley here.  And Colleen is great.  But Leah O’Connor is going to win this race.

It would be easy to say that Shalaya Kipp was a bigger favorite last year than O’Connor is this year—and that O’Connor has run slower than both Courtney Frerichs and Quigley have in 2015.  But O’Connor is going to win this race.

Kyle’s Take: Granted the steeplechase is a relatively young event for women, this is the event with the most historic match-up outside the women’s pole vault. Frerichs is the No. 3 collegian all time after narrowly edging Quigley – the No. 4 collegian ever – earlier this year at Stanford. Both will have to contend with defending national champion O’Connor, who seems to be peaking at the right time with a career-best at the East Prelims to occupy the No. 5 slot all-time.

O’Connor has said she plans to go fast this week, and it’s a good bet that when the No. 2 collegiate miler of all time says she’s going to go fast, we’re in for a show. It’ll be quick, and O’Connor will be the quickest of them all.

Women’s 200

Final: Saturday, 6:40pm ET on ESPN2

Dennis’ Take: The 200 might be the biggest test of exactly how much strain the new format puts on athletes.  The 10k/5k double remains more or less the same as in past years, and no one is attempting one-day distance doubles in the 15, 5, and/or steeple.  But the 100 and 200 being on the same day is new water that many sprinters are dipping their toes in.  Among the most prominent women attempting the short sprint double are Kentucky’s Dezerea Bryant, Oregon’s Jenna Prandini, and Texas’s Morolake Akinosun.  If the double is doable, those three are among the favorites. If it’s too much to handle (and those three will likely been running their third event of the day including the 4×1) then watch out for two fresh and fast women from the SEC.  Florida’s Kyra Jefferson and Texas A&M’s Kamaria Brown are opting for the 200 as their only open event.  Jefferson, the indoor national champ, has the fastest time in the country this year—her 22.39 was the fastest regular season time, and she improved her best to 22.26 at the East Prelims.  Adding to the spice of the penultimate event of the women’s event: all five of those women are on teams that could be in the mix for a national title.

Kyle’s Take: Prandini came within thousandths of a second of winning last year’s outdoor 200 title, and actually ran the fastest time of the 2015 indoor season at the NCAA Championships, but at the wrong time. Her 22.52 came in the prelims, before she was topped by Florida’s Kyra Jefferson in the final.

Both women are in heavy contention outdoors, as is defending champion Kamaria Brown of Texas A&M. It’ll potentially come down to who’s the freshest – this is where the new schedule format comes into play in a big way. Prandini will potentially have both the 4×100 and the 100 in her legs by this point, Jefferson will likely just have the 4×100, and Brown will have the 4×1 and 100. Plus, Jefferson is already the fastest this outdoor season from just two weeks ago. I’ll take Jefferson.

Women’s 4×400 Relay

Final: Saturday, 7:20pm ET on ESPN2

Dennis’ Take: With such an insanely close team race, this is going most consequential women’s final event since 2011, when the Texas A&M women won the meet 49-45 over Oregon—exactly the points different between first-place TAMU and third-place Oregon in the 4×4. The descending order list has it going Florida, Texas (those two teams have the top six regular season times this year), Notre Dame, Arkansas, Clemson, USC, Texas A&M, Duke. The Track & Field News form chart has the top four teams going Texas, Florida, Arkansas, USC.  Neither of those account for the suddenly questionably health of Courtney Okolo, and Texas has a smaller question mark in Kendall Baisden—who finished last in the Big 12 400 final. (Baisden has since run the fastest time at the West Prelims).

At those same West Prelims, USC broke up the Texas/Florida hegemony with a 3:27.86, just 0.02 off of the No. 1 time in the nation this year.  Texas is still the favorites, as they won a national title without Ashley Spencer last year.  Sub in Spencer for Okolo this year, and the Longhorns should get it done.  In addition to Florida, watch for TAMU—always peaking at the right time—and USC, though.

Kyle’s Take: Courtney Okolo’s absence for Texas blows this event wide open. Southern California raised some eyebrows with a third-place finish out of the second-to-last section of the 4×400 indoors in what was essentially a solo effort. Put them in a race with Florida and the Texas women and I think they go even faster. They’re already the No. 2 team in the rankings. I’ll take Southern California.