PROJECTIONS: Can Anyone Catch Cheserek & the Oregon Men?

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama – National team titles are won on Day two at the NCAA Division I Indoor Track & Field Championships, but it’s the outcome of day one that can really make or break a title run.

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Chalk up into the first column the two-time defending national champion Oregon men in particular, but also Arkansas, Florida and LSU. Texas A&M and Tennessee weren’t quite so fortunate.

Taking into account the results of day one and prognosticating the results of today’s final day of competition, this Director of Communications has produced the following Day Two projections in the men’s team race:

With a pair of extremely well-documented national titles from the sensational Edward Cheserek, Oregon enters the final day of competition in an extremely favorable position: atop the scoreboard with 25 points, and co-leading all teams with six entries into today’s competitions.

One of whom is, once again, Cheserek. He’s slated to make an attempt at becoming just the second man to both sweep the 3000/5000 individual titles and run for the winning distance medley relay. Only former Duck Galen Rupp (2009) has done that, en route to winning the inaugural Bowerman Award – something Cheserek has been denied two years in a row.

It may be the King’s world and we’re all just living in it, but one person a kingdom is not. He’s got help in the title race from top-seeded hurdler Devon Allen and top-seeded miler Blake Haney – both of whom won their respective heats Friday – as well as additional points potentially on the table with another mile entry and competitors in the heptathlon and triple jump.

Performing better than anticipated through day one to earn six day-two competitors is No. 2 Arkansas, though the Razorbacks’ climb to the top of the mountain will be an arduous one. A national long jump title for Jarrion Lawson with a final-round clincher among 14 total points in the event was a big boost, and both Lawson and Kenzo Cotton performed admirably on the track to boost Arkansas’ fortunes. Lawson is a finalist at 60 meters, while Cotton will run both at 60 and 200 meters. Arkansas will need more jumps magic today with Clive Pullen in the triple jump.

Fortune may have found favor in Arkansas as frosh Carlton Orange initially did not qualify for the 800-meter final, but was re-instated after it was determined that Donavan Brazier of Texas A&M [more on the Aggies later] impeded his progress when the Aggie superstar left the track with an injury mid-race. Any points from Orange would be a significant bonus.

Though, perhaps it was karma that delivered Orange to the 800-meter final, after the Razorbacks’ own 400-meter title contender Marqueze Washington pulled up with an injury in his event just moments prior. Washington’s status casts significant doubt on an Arkansas 4×400 squad already seeded only sixth.

LSU safely qualified all of its tracksters through to today’s finals and will look for big points from all of them. Jordan Moore can chip some points away from Oregon with a head-to-head victory over Allen in the 60 hurdles – an event in which the two men are co-favorites – while Nathaneel Mitchell-Blake (200) and Michael Cherry (400) need to deliver on their status as No. 2 seeds in their respective events to hold off the likes of Florida and Tennessee. Fitzroy Dunkley provides an additional boost at 400 meters, and they’ll all need to come together in the crucial 4×400 relay that features Florida and Texas.

Speaking of the Gators, they have some work to do today as well with just four entries – all on the track – tied with Oregon for the day’s most. Arman Hall is the linchpin as he hopes to become the first man in meet history to twice in his career score both at 200 meters and 400 meters. He’ll be joined at 400 meters by Najee Glass, and the two will run together in the meet-finale 4×400 relay.

Texas has three entries into today’s events, all of whom have shots at national titles. Ryan Crouser is the collegiate record-holder in the shot put, Zack Bilderback was the pre-meet top seed at 400 meters, and the Longhorns’ 4×400 relay is seeded third.

Tennessee is in decent shape to make a podium run, but would have been better-positioned had top-seeded pole vaulter Jake Blankenship not no-heighted out of his event. Still, the Vols are still looking good on the track with Christian Coleman coming through from the semifinals as the top seed at 200 meters and the No. 3 seed at 60. Plus, the quarter-mile could prove crucial for Tennessee as Nathan Strother got an unprojected berth to the 400 final, and the 4×400 squad could outperform their seed in an always volatile event.

Washington performed up to and beyond expectations to position themselves with an outside shot at a podium run. Jax Thoirs emerged with the win in that aforementioned pole vault and the distance medley relay squad met its pre-meet No. 2 rank with the fastest-ever runner-up performance in meet history.  Going for the podium today would require big runs from Izaic Yorks – who anchored that DMR last night – and Colby Gilbert at 3000 meters.

Though out of the hunt for the podium, NC State, Southeastern Louisiana and Texas Tech are all positioned for top-10 finishes. NC State and Tech both have one entry apiece today, while SE Louisiana’s lone event today will be scoreboard watching.

Day two’s biggest question mark is Texas A&M. One of the pre-meet favorites for the podium, the Aggies’ aspirations were dealt a crippling blow midway through the 800 semifinals when Donavan Brazier left the track with lower back problems. Combined with the fact that likely scorer Devin Jenkins didn’t advance from the 200 semifinals, that leaves half-miler Hector Hernandez as the lone individual trackster for the Aggies today. They have three other entries with outside chances of scoring in the heptathlon, 4×400 relay and triple jump.