Saint Augustine’s & Lincoln (Mo.) Favored in This Week’s NCAA DII Championships

NEW ORLEANS – With just days to go until the NCAA Division II Outdoor Track & Field Championships, two teams very familiar with the NCAA Championship trophy are pre-meet favorites to stand atop the podium once more.

The three-time defending national champion Saint Augustine’s men and 2014 women’s national champion Lincoln (Mo.) have been tapped as the favorites in the latest National Team Computer Rankings announced Monday by the U.S. Track & Field and Cross Country Coaches Association (USTFCCCA) – which take into account only entries into the May 26-28 Championships in Bradenton, Florida.

But their potential paths to the top of the team standings are shaping up to be very different.

While the SAU men are significant favorites over No. 2 Texas A&M-Kingsville, the Blue Tiger women look to be locked in a tight battle with, among others, MIAA rival No. 2 Pittsburg State. Lincoln (Mo.) reclaimed the No. 1 rank from the Gorillas, who topped LU at their conference meet two weekends ago.

The gap between Saint Augustine’s and TAMU-Kingsville, in terms of ranking points, is approximately 60 points, with only one other team – No. 3 Grand Valley State – within 100 points. The Falcons checked in at 244.82, well ahead of the Javelinas at 184.89.

The Javelinas and Lakers (148.67) are expected to be in a close battle with, among others, No. 4 Adams State (143.43), No. 5 Chico State (109.16), and indoor national champion No. 7 Tiffin (100.96).

(NOTE: The ranking points do not equate to the NCAA Championships scoring system, but are instead meant to illustrate potential overall strength at the NCAA Championships).

Meanwhile, nine women’s teams are ranked within 60 points of the Lincoln women, and a baker’s dozen are 100 points or fewer behind the Blue Tigers.

Lincoln gets the early nod with 167.77 points to their name, followed by No. 2 PSU at 162.43. Not much farther behind are No. 3 Saint Augustine’s (155.14), No. 4 West Texas A&M (140.33) and No. 5 Hillsdale (130.23).

Also still very much in the hunt for the podium are No. 6 Grand Valley State (118.98), No. 7 Findlay (118.87), No. 8 Johnson C. Smith (118.42), and defending national champion No. 9 Central Missouri (110.67). Alaska Anchorage (88.52) rounded out the top-10.

So who has the edge in this extremely close women’s race?

In terms of total Championship entries, the advantage goes to Grand Valley State, and by a healthy margin. The Lakers have a whopping 25 entries – including seven jumpers and six distance runners – compared to 16 for West Texas A&M, 15 for Pittsburg State, 14 for Lincoln and 13 for Hillsdale.

The downside for GVSU? Most of their entries are ranked outside of scoring position (i.e. the top eight spots). Of those 25, only four are currently ranked first through eighth in their respective events, and none are ranked top-three.

It’s a very different story for those teams in the top five. Each of them has at least three athletes seeded No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 in their respective events – including four each for Pittsburg State and Saint Augustine’s. Lincoln, West Texas A&M and Hillsdale have three each, with Lincoln represented by three top seeds.

The Grand Valley men also enter with the largest contingent of championship entries, though by not nearly as large a margin as their female teammates.

The Lakers bring 17 entries to Bradenton, just one more than heavily favored Saint Augustine’s. Adams State with 14 and No. 9 Ashland with 12 aren’t too far behind on the overall list.

Saint Augustine’s’ advantage becomes clear when looking at the relative quality of entries, though. Of the Falcons’ 17 entries, 14 are currently seeded eighth or better, seven are seeded top-three, and three are their events’ top seeds.

Kingsville has comparable top-end strength with a nation-best four entries seeded No. 1 in their respective events and nine in scoring position, but the Javelinas have a narrower margin for error with so many of their 11 qualifiers already rated so highly.