Breaking Down Collegians’ Chances At U.S. Olympic Team Trials – Track & Field

NEW ORLEANS — When the 2016 U.S. Olympic Team Trials – Track & Field get underway tomorrow at Hayward Field in Eugene, Oregon, 48 individual champions from this past collegiate season will be among those looking to wear the red, white and blue in Rio de Janeiro.

The trials last from July 1 to July 10 with a rest day right in the middle on July 5.

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Which collegians have the best chance of making the U.S. Olympic Team?

It’s a good thing you asked.

Let’s break that down for you right now.

To clear up any confusion, we are using the marks the athletes are entered under as the baseline and then their national championship and world championship experience as a bonus to distinguish between their chances. Athletes are listed alphabetically along with their programs for which they competed in 2016.

By the way, click here for a full list of collegians participating in Eugene, Oregon.

Favorites

Devon Allen, Oregon

110 Hurdles

The last two times Allen competed in a championship meet at Hayward Field, he won. We all know he captured his second NCAA title in the 110 hurdles earlier this month. And two years ago, he won the USATF crown in the same event. Allen shines on the big stage and there is no reason to think he won’t again.

Donavan Brazier, Texas A&M

800 Meters

As of right now, Brazier is the fastest American entered in the 800 based off times from this season. His 1:43.55 stands alone, well ahead of the 1:44.20 run by Boris Berian. On the seed chart, Brazier is second behind Berian. As a newly-minted professional, this is an important opportunity for The Bowerman Award finalist as he’ll fight through three rounds in four days.

Shamier Little, Texas A&M

400 Hurdles

Little is on another level compared to the rest of the entrants in the 400 hurdles. She enters the competition as the No. 1 seed at 53.51, which was the second fastest time run in collegiate history. Little earned the silver medal at the 2015 IAAF World Outdoor Championships in the event. There is good reason to #FearTheBow.

Courtney Okolo, Texas

400 Meters

Only four women have gone sub-50 during the qualifying process. Okolo is one of them after dropping a blazing 49.71 to lower her collegiate record in late April. The Bowerman Award finalist is ranked second on the seed chart behind Allyson Felix and won a gold medal at the 2016 IAAF World Indoor Championships.

Keturah Orji, Georgia

Triple Jump

How can someone who set an American record NOT be a favorite to make the Olympic team? Orji is ranked No. 1 on the seed chart, more than a foot ahead of runner-up Andrea Geubelle. The Bowerman Award finalist finished fourth in this event at the 2016 IAAF World Indoor Championships.

On The Bubble

Courtney Frerichs, New Mexico

3000m Steeplechase

According to the descending order list, Frerichs is currently fourth behind Emma Coburn, Leah O’Connor and Stephanie Garcia. Frerichs soloed her collegiate record of 9:24.41, so competition will help narrow the gap between them — not to mention she beat O’Connor at the 2015 NCAA Division I Outdoor Track & Field Championships. We should also mentioned she lost to fifth-seeded Colleen Quigley at that NCAA meet.

Arman Hall, Florida

400 Meters

Is Hall ready to put it all together? He showed his wheels at NCAAs with his time of 44.82 and is ranked second on time this season (third overall). Hall also has experience on the world stage, having won gold with Team USA at the 2013 IAAF World Outdoor Championships 4×400 team.

Avion Jones, East Carolina
Jeron Robinson, Texas A&M-Kingsville

High Jump

Jones and Robinson might have disappointed at NCAAs, but have shown the ability to reach heights needed to make an Olympic team (Robinson finished fourth at the 2015 USATF Championships). Both are currently tied for second on the seed chart at 2.31 meters behind Erik Kynard Jr’s lead (2.37m).

Maggie Malone, Texas A&M

Javelin Throw

Malone is one of three athletes with the Olympic standard of 62 meters. She is currently ranked third in the descending order list behind Kara Winger and Brittany Borman with her collegiate record heave of 62.19 meters. Even if Malone finishes outside the top-3, she’d go to Rio if no other athlete reaches the standard.

Sam Mattis, Pennsylvania

Discus Throw

Mattis hasn’t put impressed since rearranging the discus throw collegiate record books in March. That being said, Mattis is still ranked No. 1 on the seed chart by more than one meter.

Clayton Murphy, Akron

800 Meters

Murphy won the 800-meter NCAA title indoors before turning his focus to the 1500 outdoors. Let’s not forget Murphy represented Team USA at the most recent World Indoor Championships in Portland, Oregon.

Demi Payne, Stephen F. Austin

Pole Vault

Her outdoor season might have been cut short, but you can’t look past Payne based on what she did indoors. Payne moved into a tie for fourth on the world indoor chart with her clearance of 4.90m at the Millrose Games. Look for Payne and Sandi Morris to continue their incredible rivalry.

DeAnna Price, Southern Illinois

Hammer Throw

Price is currently third on the seed chart behind Amber Campbell and Jeneva Stephens. She is three centimeters behind Stevens (72.69m to 72.66m) and often takes advantage of the "Hayward Magic."

Raven Saunders, Ole Miss

Shot Put

Never count out a two-time collegiate record holder. Saunders is the class of the NCAA in the shot put and is quite familiar with the circle inside Hayward Field. The showdown between Saunders and former indoor collegiate record holder Tia Brooks should be a good one.

Kendell Williams, Georgia

Heptathlon

Williams always is at her best when the chips are down. She swept the combined event titles in 2016 at the NCAA meets and placed sixth at the 2016 IAAF World Indoor Championships in the pentathlon. Don’t even think about counting her out.

Dark Horses

Erica Bougard, Mississippi State

Heptathlon

Bougard is a two-time Team USA member (2013 & 2015 IAAF World Outdoor Championships), so she knows how to compete at this level.

Quanesha Burks, Alabama

Long Jump

Burks is currently fourth on the seed list, a mere two centimeters behind Cynithia Janay DeLoach.

Kelsey Card, Wisconsin

Discus Throw

What Card did at NCAAs earlier this month (five throws better than 60 meters) shows that she’s peaking at the right time.

Ryan Crouser, Texas

Shot Put

Currently No. 4 on the seed chart, Crouser always seems to step up when it matters. It doesn’t get much bigger than this in an Olympic year.

Jarrion Lawson, Arkansas

Long Jump

Competition brings the best out of this Bowerman Award finalist. That competition usually comes in the form of 2015 Bowerman Award winner Marquis Dendy, who is also in the field (Each time Lawson soared past 8.33m, Dendy was in the competition as well).

Raevyn Rogers, Oregon

800 Meters

This field is stacked and the team will be difficult to make, but Rogers knows what it’s like to race at Hayward Field and if she runs a personal best when it matters, she’ll be in contention.

Shelbi Vaughan, Texas A&M

Discus Throw

Vaughan is currently second on the seed chart behind Whitney Ashley and if the former Aggie can put her end-of-season struggles behind her, watch out.

Zach Ziemek, Wisconsin

Decathlon

The heptathlon champion and runner-up in the decathlon qualified for the 2015 IAAF World Outdoor Championships in the decathlon. Can’t rule out that kind of experience.