USTFCCCA News & Notes
NCAA DI XC Championships: Keys To Victory For Podium Contenders
By Tyler Mayforth, USTFCCCA November 16, 2016   

NCAA DI XC Championships: Keys To Victory For Podium Contenders

NEW ORLEANS — There hasn’t been a repeat team champion in NCAA Division I Women’s Cross Country since Villanova in 2009 and 2010, and by the looks of the most recent National Coaches’ Poll that trend will continue Saturday when the best of the best gather in Terre Haute, Indiana.

After entering the season as the favorite, the defending champion New Mexico Lady Lobos fell out of the top-10 at one point of the season and are now ranked right outside the top-5 at No. 6.

That leaves five teams the voting coaches feel are superior to New Mexico: Unanimous No. 1 Colorado, No. 2 NC State, No. 3 Providence, No. 4 Stanford and No. 5 Michigan.

QUICK LINKS: National Championship Central | National Coaches’ Poll

What’s it going to take for the Buffs to be the sixth unanimous team in the past 12 years to win a title?

How can the Wolfpack, Friars, Cardinal or Wolverines knock off Colorado?

Let’s look deeper at our "Keys to Victory" featuring the top-5 teams in the Pre-Championship Poll.

No. 1 Colorado

Mountain Region Champion, Pac-12 Champion, Pre-Nats Champion

  • Run Their Race: Ever since Colorado unleashed its full lineup at Pre-Nats, it’s been "All Systems Go." The Buffs haven’t broken a sweat in easy victories in Terre Haute (93-154), Tuscon, Arizona for the Pac-12 Championships (33-74 over Washington) and Logan, Utah at the Mountain Region Championships (35-109 over New Mexico). Colorado kept to it race plan each time and appears to be getting stronger as the season wears on. That’s bad news for the rest of the nation, especially if the Buffs lock in — as they’re expected to — on Saturday.
No. 2 NC State

Southeast Region Champion, ACC Champion, Wisco Runner-Up

  • Pack Up: Here is a glance at the top-5 finishers, by place, for NC State at both postseason meets thus far — 4-10-12-13-14 (ACC Championships) and 2-10-11-12-18 (Southeast Region Championships). Earlier this season at the Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational, the Wolfpack went 7-18-24-46-71. NC State finished no worse than second as a team at any of those meets, but its runners can’t afford to lose track of each other at NCAAs like it did at Wisco.
  • Senior Leadership: NC State has been most successful when Erika Kemp leads the way. Kemp did just that at the Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational, Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational and Southeast Region Championships and the Wolfpack followed her lead. Kemp finished 57th at NCAAs last year and based off her performances this year, you can likely subtract 40-50 from that number to figure out her spot in 2016. That would be huge for NC State as it needs a low stick to take down Colorado.
  • Sister Act: We saw Ryen Frazier and Wesley Frazier on the same course in NC State uniforms once this season and they excelled. Wesley and Ryen placed 10th and 14th, respectively, at the ACC Championships to help lead the Wolfpack to a conference title. Ryen seems to have shook off her troubles at 6K and Wesley had a fantastic debut at that distance. Should they both run — and run to their potential in Terre Haute — it will go a long way for NC State.
No. 3 Providence

Northeast Region Champion, BIG EAST Champion, Wisco 3rd Place

  • Find The Mojo Again: It seems forever ago that Providence was the consensus favorite in NCAA Division I Women’s Cross Country. Then again, that was before voting coaches learned Catarina Rocha would redshirt and saw that 2015 XC All-American Samantha Jones wasn’t her normal self. The Friars need to tap into the well of confidence they had as that No. 1 team and run like that on Saturday.
  • Tremendous Trio: Before the season began, we assumed the trio of Sarah Collins, Samantha Jones and Catarina Rocha would be a tour de force. That never materialized, but Collins, Brianna Ilarda and Millie Paladino have rounded into form. They finished 4th, 5th and 7th at the Northeast Region Championships and that’s a great sign for the Friars, who need a strong top-3 to contend with Colorado.
  • Not One, Not Two, Not Three: Sarah Collins always comes up big at NCAAs. As a freshman in 2012, she placed 10th. As a sophomore, 39th. As a junior, 20th. As a senior? We’ll find out soon enough. Providence needs Collins to finish more like her 2012 self than her 2015 self to earn its 9th podium spot in program history.
No. 4 Stanford

West Region Champion, Pac-12 Champion, Pre-Nationals 6th Place

  • Keep It Rolling: Stanford shines in the postseason. The Cardinal has now reached the NCAA Division I Cross Country Championships in 24 consecutive years. This year it was never a question of "if" Stanford would make it to Terre Haute, more "how." With such a young roster (three freshmen in its top-5), pundits wondered if the Cardinal would be an at-large qualifier or nab an automatic bid. Well, Stanford hit its stride in a big way once the postseason started. The Cardinal finished 3rd at the Pac-12 Championships and then won its first West Region title since 2007. Stanford easily dispatched Washington 71-88 and swapped spots with the Huskies in the poll (No. 7 to No. 4). The Cardinal is running with confidence right now and that’s huge for a young team.
  • Welcome To The Big Time: Many of Stanford’s top runners haven’t experienced the kind of pressure they’ll face Saturday in Terre Haute. Outside of 2015 XC All-American Vanessa Fraser, the Cardinal’s top-5 consists of three freshmen (Christina Aragon, Ella Donaghu, Fiona O’Keeffe) and a senior (Danielle Katz) who finished 150th at NCAAs last year as a junior. Aragon, Donaghu and O’Keeffe must continue to run like upperclassmen and Katz can’t get lost in the pack again.
No. 5 Michigan

Great Lakes Region Champion, Big Ten Champion, Pre-Nats 3rd Place

  • Follow Finn: The rumors of Erin Finn‘s demise after the Roy Griak Invitational have been greatly exaggerated. Finn has been on a war path since mid-September and doesn’t appear to be slowing down. She set a course record at the Louisville Classic, ran one of the fastest times in the history of the LaVern Gibson Championship Cross Country Course at Pre-Nats and then won the Big Ten title and Great Lakes Region title. Next up on her national tour is NCAAs and if she keeps her shoes on this time, an individual title beckons.
  • Help Finn: Michigan knows Finn’s low stick will be there this weekend. When the Wolverines ran at Pre-Nats, they went 22-49-51-56 behind Finn’s 1. That’s not bad for Pre-Nats, but the field will be much, much deeper at NCAAs. Throw in all of those runners from the Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational that same weekend and Michigan’s 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th runners would be pushed back. Avery Evenson and Gina Sereno need to keep up with the pack like they did at the Great Lakes Region Championships (9th and 8th, respectively) to give the Wolverines a chance.