NCAA DI XC Championships: Men’s Individual Race Breakdown

TERRE HAUTE, Indiana – While we singled out two individual favorites in the women’s race at the NCAA Division I Cross Country Championships on Saturday, everyone in the men’s race not named “Edward Cheserek” is simply a challenger to the King’s reign.

It’s hard to believe it was three years ago that Edward assumed the throne atop the NCAA distance running world on this same LaVern Gibson Championship Course, surging past then-defending champ Kennedy Kithuka – once viewed as untouchable – in the final third of the race.

His first title was won in come-from-behind fashion, his second came on this course in 2014 with a blistering final two-kilometer kick, and his third came in a from-the-gun showdown between him and Patrick Tiernan of Villanova in Louisville a year ago.

In other words, you can’t pull away from him, you can’t outkick him, and you can’t break him. That has held true so far in 2016, as Ches notched decisive wins on the 8K course here in Terre Haute at Pre-Nats, at the Pac-12 Championships and at the West Regional. If it continues to hold true, the Oregon senior will finish his career as the undisputed King of Cross Country, becoming the first man in DI history to win four consecutive national crowns.

THE TOP CONTENDERS

No one on an NCAA Championships cross country course has been able to stop him yet, that is. Who are the men best in position to end his reign?

Based on last year’s race the top returner is Patrick Tiernan of Villanova, who pushed Cheserek for eight kilometers in Louisville before the King made the decisive winning move. Tiernan has raced just twice this year with clear victories at the BIG EAST and Mid-Atlantic Regional championships, but has yet to be tested against the NCAA’s best this fall. He was tested in a big way over 5000 meters on the track this summer, finishing just about five seconds away from making the Olympic final.

The best-credentialed runner in the field (and the one with the hometown advantage) is Northern Arizona’s Futsum Zienasellasse. Futsum has twice finished top-five on this course at NCAAs – a feat matched only by Ches among active runners – with a fourth-place effort in 2013 and a third-place run in 2014. The Big Sky and Mountain Region winner redshirted last cross season just for this opportunity, so he’ll be extra motivated to get one last shot at Cheserek.

The man who’s emerged in 2016 as the most legitimate threat to the King’s reign is Syracuse’s Justyn Knight, who was fourth a year ago in Louisville as a sophomore. No one has beaten Knight this fall – including Futsum – as the Orange leader collected titles at Virginia, Wisconsin, ACCs and the Northeast Regional. An emphasis has seemingly been placed upon Knight storming back from sometimes more than 10 seconds off the lead in the late stages of the race to chase down the win, perhaps in anticipation of a hot pace that could be set down late, a la 2014.

Those are the big three challengers, but there are others solidly in the mix for spots in the final chase pack, as well. Big Ten champ and Great Lakes runner-up Morgan McDonald of Wisconsin, and Pac-12 runner-up Grant Fisher of Stanford and his teammate Sean McGorty are among those expected to also push up front. Though he hasn’t made as much noise as a year ago, Jonah Koech of UTEP (11th a year ago) will also be a threat at the front.

THE DARK HORSES

Look out for a couple of up-and-coming underclassmen from unheralded mid-major programs to potentially make a big splash after winning their regional meets.

Jacob Choge of Middle Tennessee took down Koech at the Conference-USA Championships (and will run near the front with teammate Kigen Chemadi. They’ll be running with extra motivation to make the most of MTSU’s first-ever NCAA Championships appearance.

Then there’s Tulane’s Emmanuel Rotich, victor at the South Central Regional. While he may not have won his conference (third in the American), he seems to be peaking at just the right time after taking down the men from Arkansas at regionals.

The man who won the American is also one to look out for, as well. Luke Traynor won the Midwest title over a stout field headed by No. 8 Oklahoma State. Tulsa’s top runner has performed well at NCAAs in recent years between Marc Scott and Chris O’Hare, and Traynor looks to continue that tradition.