Eight Questions as the NCAA Division I XC Postseason Kicks Off

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The opinions expressed in this preview and podcast are not the official positions of the USTFCCCA, but rather analysis presented by the communications staff.

NEW ORLEANS – The best weekend of the year starts in two days. While we wait, let me tell you a story about me being a terrible person. There is a place in the United States that’s as important to the creation of our modern republic than anywhere else. But when you say “Gettysburg,” I immediately think of the Centennial Conference championships¹.

Our college cross country conference meets were held on the trails adjacent to the battlefields there in 2008 and 2009.  I’ve been to a dozen Diamond League meets and NCAA championships, but nothing has come close to the emotionally charged atmosphere of a conference meet.

That’s not to say it’s the biggest stage, or the most historically meaningful, but the electricity, passion, and personality of a college conference championship—particularly in a stable and geographically cramped league—are incomparable.

I called my college coach, a one Donald J. Nichter approaching his fourth decade in the game, to ask him why conferences are so special:

I think the reason that conferences are so important is that you have so much respect for programs in the Centennial after going up against them year in, year out. And that respect you have means that you and your athletes really, really want to beat those teams. Not having the automatic qualifier that other sports get for winning their conference might make you think that the meet doesn’t matter. Unlike other sports, you might be competing against conference teams for the first time all season. You have to rise up to the occasion in an unpredictable atmosphere. It might even be the first time all season your whole team is on the line! So the electricity on your team is at a whole new level. One team stepping up causes everyone else to do the same. So when we get to nationals, we all benefit from those great rivalries three weeks before. In cross country, it’s strategically challenging to prep for conferences and regionals, but it’s a special part of the sport. They’re fresh, tapered for the first time, it’s the first weekend in November… there’s a chill in the air (maybe even snow!) and it’s a magical opportunity for athletes to do something with their teammates. I wouldn’t trade it for anything.

You could easily substitute “Pac-12” for “Centennial” above. So, our first question for this weekend:

1. What happens in the Pac-12 men’s race?

Conference Championships Info Can’t be at any conference championship meets this weekend? Will you be at one and want to contribute to the national conversation? Check out the USTFCCCA National Results Wall! Want to hear what some of this weekend’s biggest players have to say? Give the USTFCCCA QA₂ Max Podcast a listen!

No. 1 Colorado is better than they were last year, right? No one denies this.  And yet, they won’t replicate their incredible 28-point showing from Pac-12s a year ago. 

Those 28 scant points were scored at home, at altitude, against a much weaker conference.  A year ago, only Oregon and Stanford made it to NCAAs, where they finished fifth and 19th, respectively.  This year, No. 2 Oregon, No. 9 Stanford, No. 11 UCLA, and No. 12 Washington all seem like locks to qualify for nationals.

The latter three teams are all ranked higher than No. 16 Georgetown, which was the third-place team at Pre-Nationals.  With the Buffs and Ducks going 1-2 at both Pre-Nats and Pac-12s, but the fifth-best team at Pac-12s being superior to the third at Pre-Nats, logic dictates Colorado is going to go higher than the 35 points they posted in Terre Haute.

Flotrack has the Buffs pegged at 35 points, and that seems to be about the lowest they can go.  However many points they score, they’re very likely to win, and Oregon will almost certainly take second.  (The Ducks smoked national No. 3 Syracuse in Boston; none of the Pac-12 teams came within 100 points of the ‘Cuse in Madison).

Here’s a more interesting question: who gets third?

Oregon and Stanford have occupied two of the top three places in the conference 18 of the last 19 years.  With Colorado joining in 2011, an already precious top-three placing has become nearly unattainable for the conference’s proletarians. The last time Washington finished third in the Pac-12 was 2008, while UCLA’s last third place was in 1996—a year in which a third of its current roster was zero or one years old.

There might be one top-three slot up for grabs on Friday.  Per Letsrun, here are the scores from Wisconsin if you remove all of the non-PAC teams: UCLA 40, Stanford 43, Washington 48.  (No matter what, UCLA will have the coolest uniforms.)  The results probably hinge on the possible returns of Daniel Herrera for the Bruins and Sean McGorty for the Cardinal, which leads to the next question…

2. Will Sean McGorty, Daniel Herrera, Kieran Clements, Kate Avery, Waverly Neer, Sarah Baxter, Sarah Collins, Kelsey Santisteban, etc. debut?

Yes*: Herrera, McGorty, Neer
Probably: Avery
No: , Santisteban, Baxter (Running Times reports she could be back for nationals)
WHO KNOWS?: Clements, Collins

(*listed among the entries for Pac-12s. Whether they actually run in another matter entirely)

Avery’s return could catapult her into the national title conversation, while the other five (and certainly others not mentioned) have major team implications.

Perhaps nothing better encapsulates the foggy vision of a fan of American distance running than the Belichickian silence and obfuscation that surrounds college athletes’ injuries.  The news of the two major injuries of the fall so far—Aisling Cuffe and Joe Rosa—were broken on a student blog and Instagram² respectively.

There are two reasons for the thickness of this fog:

1) A torpid media.  So often, my peers³ and I assume that certain programs won’t be forthcoming, and so we don’t even bother to ask.  Props to John Kissane for having the gusto to call the Powells and get the details on Baxter and Neer.

2) No gambling! Don’t think for a second that if coaches in other sports (at any level) would give detailed injury reports if they weren’t forced to for fantasy/point spread purposes.  No one is taking action—licit or otherwise—on, say Michigan vs. Michigan State, so nothing compels Mike McGuire or Walt Drenth to list anyone as probable or questionable.

Speaking of the Battle of the Mitten:

3. Can the Michigan women take a shot at their in-state rivals at Big Tens?

The No. 1 Michigan State women are deserving of the ranking: they haven’t lost this year, toasting quality fields at Roy Griak and Wisconsin.  While they’ve essentially beaten the rest of the country, they haven’t raced any of the other top-four ranked teams (yes, MSU did beat Oregon at Dellinger way back in September, but Oregon did not run its full squad. And it was mid-September). 

No. 2 Georgetown, No. 3 Oregon, and No. 4 Michigan have all beaten each other this fall.  Georgetown beat Oregon, who beat Michigan at Pre-Nats, while Michigan beat Georgetown in Boston.

The Spartans are the clear favorites at B1Gs in Iowa City.  At Wisconsin, they had the best #3, #4, #5, #6, and #7 runners in the field.  That feat has never been achieved in the short history of the adidas Invitational. What’s more, they could probably step up a little bit.  Their #5 at Wisco, Sara Kroll, won Big 10s two years ago, and their #7, Ali Wiersma, was their 5th across the line at Griak.

Here’s the devil’s advocate’s case for Michigan having a chance.  While Erin Finn, Shannon Osika, Brook Handler, and Megan Weschler have been the top four at both big meets this fall, their fifth scorer is extremely unsettled.

Check out their top seven from their last three meets, and keep in mind that they beat Georgetown at Beantown, lost to Gtown/Oregon at Pre-nats, and finished directly ahead of Gtown/Michigan State at nationals last November.

Pre-nats 2014: Finn, Osika, Handler, Weschler, Mannett, Pasternak, Pogue
Beantown 2014: Finn, Osika, Handler, Weschler, Pogue, Mannett, Leptich
Nationals 2013: Finn, Osika, Mannett, Handler, Pasternak, Weschler, Leptich

If Mannett regains her form from last fall, the Wolverines have a chance. She tied Osika at NCAAs a year ago; if she tied Osika at Pre-Nats this fall, they would have beaten Oregon and finished just six points behind Georgetown.

Mike McGuire told me in September that, like D-Nick said above, his school’s biggest rivalry is grounded in a healthy respect⁴ And that’s a good thing, because the Lower Peninsula schools could not be at a higher boil right now. Last fall, Michigan State won the conference meet, and Michigan won the regional meet. Then outdoors, UM beat MSU by exactly one point at conferences.

The races between the women⁵ on these two teams go back years.  Check out the results from the 2010 Michigan high school state meet: the winners from the D3 (Wiersma) and D2 (Schulist) races matriculated to Lansing, while three of the top five (Handler, Finn, Osika) and five of the top 22 (including Mannett and Clark) in D1 made their way to Ann Arbor.  Michigan State’s Lindsay Clark finished sixth in that D1 race.

4. Will another woman add herself to the list of national title contenders? Or will the list get shorter?

Elise Cranny has the most upside of any distance runner joining the NCAA since at least Sally Kipyego.  Born and raised at altitude and the holder of the third fastest 1500/mile time in high school history⁶ Cranny is tied for the best finish ever by an American in the 1500 at the world junior championships.  She’s raced twice in college: an easy win at the Washington Invitational, and a seventh-place finish at Wisconsin. Her talent is so vast, and her high school career so unprecedented, that if she wins the Pac-12, she has to be considered among the favorites to win nationals.

Of course, she probably won’t win her conference on Friday. Shelby Houlihan is a heavy favorite.  And as Ryan Fenton and Kyle Terwillegar co-signed in the attached podcast (see the top to listen), Cranny simply doesn’t know the nooks and crannies (SORRY) of the 6k distance yet. 

If Emma Bates, Rachele Schulist, Colleen Quigley, or Liv Westphal dominate their conference meets, their respective CVs are so strong that they have to stay on this apocryphal list. If they lose—and one of Quigley and Westphal has to lose ACCs—they’re crossed off.

What about Crystal Nelson, Rachel Johnson, and Kate Avery, you say?

5. Who wins Crystal Nelson vs. Rachel Johnson at Big 12s?

No boiling hot take here: I have no idea. Experience at the highest level is not some mystic intangible—it counts in this sport, which would give the slight edge to Johnson, who finished third at NCAAs in the steeple and spent her summer banging heads with pros at USAs and winning a (very thin) NACAC meet.  That’s a stark contrast to Nelson, who didn’t qualify for regionals this spring.

On the other hand, if cross country had a regular season wrestling-style belt, Nelson would definitely hold it right now. At Wisconsin, she beat the winners of all of the biggest meets leading up to it: Shelby Houlihan/Roy Griak, Colleen Quigley/Paul Short, Liv Westphal/Battle in Beantown, Elise Cranny/Washington. Also, despite her lacking track credentials, Nelson beat Johnson by a minute at Big 12s and 40 seconds at nationals last fall.

On the other other hand⁷, Nelson and Johnson have raced once this fall.  Johnson beat Nelson at Roy Griak in September.

One last note: we interviewed Nelson and Johnson this week.  Both attributed their late-career breakthroughs to being told by a coach to ramp it down in practice.

6. Will we learn anything about Oklahoma State?

Almost definitely not! Every other team in the country outside of Boulder has lost to someone else with their A team, but OSU’s cards are so close to the vest that open-heart surgery may be required to read them.  Don’t expect to learn anything about the Cowboys until regionals, or maybe even later.

7. What’s the best non-Power 5 + Big East conference? And regardless of if it’s the best conference, who wins Ivy League Heps?

Simple question: is it the Mountain West, or the Ivy League Heps? The Mountain West has two teams of each sex ranked, while the Ivies have two ranked women’s teams.  Traditionally, the Ancient Eight has been the best non-BCS conference, but with Corey Ihmels and Joe Franklin getting entrenched in the MWC, that torch may be passed.

Even if they’re demoted to the No. 8 conference in the land, the Ivy battle this weekend is going to be maybe the most intense in Division I.  We yield prognostication to the experts at HepsTrack; in the coaches’ poll, Princeton is the only men’s squad to receive votes, while their female counterparts are, at No. 25, the top-ranked squad in the conference.

8.  Who has the most to lose/gain this weekend?

Every women’s national individual title contender covered above has at least one loss. As with that other mildly popular fall college sport, two losses look a lot worse than one.  And the Florida State women and Wisconsin men are in an unenviable position: if they win, they’re simply doing what they’re supposed to do, but if they lose, they’re messing up tradition.

Bubble teams probably have the most to gain, not necessarily in terms of Kolas points, but in confidence heading into regionals. Here’s an assuredly incomplete list of teams on the bubble for nationals, using a combination of Flo’s Kolas calculator and our coaches’ regional rankings: Furman, NC State, Georgetown, Mississippi, Texas, Lamar, Princeton, Middle Tennessee, Indiana, Tulsa, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Iowa State (men), West Virginia, Villanova, Lamar, Baylor,  Alabama, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, UCLA, Iona, Providence, Boston College (women).

This is the only weekend all year that every single cross country program in Division I will race.  Find your local meet and enjoy the action; li ke a soccer game, XC meets have the appeal of taking a nearly invariable amount of time.  It’s half an hour of men’s running, half an hour of confused smartphone staring, and then 20 minutes of women’s running and however long it takes to get those results.  Then it’s on with your Saturday.

If you’re inexplicably internet-bound, meet us there; the racing starts Friday morning.  Come back tomorrow for part two of the conference previews, featuring Division III.