D3 Men’s Regionals Preview

Like the Division I previews, this Division III preview is going to focus on the teams that have something at stake this weekend.  Unlike the formulaic DI qualifying, though, the DIII teams heading to Ohio next weekend are at the mercy of the committee. This means that predicting which teams make nationals is significantly more difficult. We can try to use the factors listed by the NCAA,

The criteria used by the committee to select at-large teams (no preferential order): regional place/performance, late-season performance (using last three regular-season meets), head-to-head competition versus teams already qualified, common opponents using late-season comparisons, regional-meet point gap, late-season meet point gaps.

but that’s an incredibly nebulous exercise.  For starters, the committee is explicitly instructed to not use those factors in any order, which means that one team could be judged by its point gaps and regionals and conferences, and another could be judged by its head-to-head regular season wins.

That’s not a bad thing! With significantly smaller athletic budgets (and, theoretically, a more intense focus on academics), there shouldn’t be a formula in place that forces DIII teams to travel inter-regionally during the regular season.  In the absence of months of really good data, then, the factors listed paint too incomplete a picture of teams to be considered in preferential order.  With the current regional meets in place, allowing the committee to consider each team holistically is the best solution to advance teams.

It just means that it’s much harder to predict what regionals mean. The upside is that unlike in DI, each regional meet is a bit more of a discrete event and less of a single block in a Jenga tower. Let’s go region by region and see who’s knocking on the door of nationals.  Below are the men; here’s link to the women

Quick refresher: the top two teams in each region automatically qualify, and a committee picks the sixteen at-large teams.

Everything you need to know about the who, what, when, and where of regionals can be found at Regional Championships Central.

Midwest

The single biggest question that will determine the composition of the nationals field: how many teams will the committee select from the Midwest? Five seems unfathomable, six seems likely, seven seems possible, and eight sounds ridiculous but might be fair.

North Central (Ill.), UW-Eau Claire, UW-La Crosse, and Washington (Mo.) are all ranked in the top ten nationally and are mortal locks to qualify.  NCC, La Crosse, and WashU have proven to be extremely reliable in big races over the last half-decade—in NCC’s case, last four decades—and Eau Claire has only lost to North Central and St. Olaf this fall.  Those four can only miss nationals if they finish outside of the top eight, which won’t happen.

Whoever finishes fifth and sixth can book their tickets to Wilmington as well; the regional rankings have UW-Platteville and UW-Oshkosh slotted there right now.  Platteville beat Oshkosh at their conference meet, but Oshkosh is at home on Saturday.  Either way, the two teams that get fifth and sixth are safe.

The real intrigue comes in seventh and eighth places.  UW-Stout and Chicago would love the safety of moving up into the top six, but that’s unlikely.  Stout hasn’t beat Oshkosh in either try this season, and Chicago was two places back of Stout at the AAE Invite.

Here’s the clearest picture of how good the Midwest is. Chicago, the #8 team in the Midwest, has beaten the following teams in their last two meets: the #5 Atlantic, #2 Mideast, #1 South/Southeast, #2 West, and finished 29 points behind the #4 Central team.

There are two plausible routes for the Midwest to get more than six teams out.  Platteville or Oshkosh could stumble out (but not too far out) of the top six. Or, Chicago/Stout could finish exceedingly close to to 6th place. Either of those scenarios puts seven teams in play.

The path to eight teams is a little rockier.  Teams 6-8 would have to be tightly bunched in the results, AND other regions would have to help. The best bets would be the third place team in the Great Lakes finishing well back of Calvin, or the fifth place Mideast team scoring way more than the fourth team.

Locks: North Central, Eau Claire, La Crosse, WashU
Run their rank and they’re in: Platteville, Oshkosh
Bubble teams: Stout, Chicago

New England

The second best region, but going over the old five-team cap is going to be a tall order.  Williams, Colby, and MIT are all ranked in the top eight nationally and have backed that up all fall.  They’ll get picked if they finish in the top six on Saturday, which is exceedingly likely.

Middlebury was only four points behind Colby at NESCACs, and Amherst was only thirteen more in arrears from the Panthers.  Both of them can book rooms in or around Wilmington if they finish in the top five on Saturday.

Tufts, Bowdoin, and Bates are nationally ranked but have been somewhat erratic this season.  The sixth place team’s season continues if they finish less than ten points out of fifth; beyond that, I’m unwilling to claim mind-reading abilities.  They’d get helped by the same circumstances that would help Stout and Chicago.

Locks: Williams, Colby, MIT
Top five and in: Middlebury, Amherst
Top five and in; top six and better be close: Tufts, Bowdoin, Bates

South/Southeast

No S/SE teams are ranked.  They’re getting two bids on the dot.

Locks: Emory
Win or go home: Bridgewater, Christopher Newport

West

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps has historically been the top dog on the Left Coast, and this year looks familiar: they’re ranked No. 20 in the nation, eleven spots higher than any other Western team.  But the other two contenders for the two auto spots could make things interesting.  The Stags actually lost to their consortium partners Pomona-Pitzer at the SCIAC Multi-Duals in mid-October before beating them two weeks later, and neither team has raced Willamette this fall.

It’ll all come down to the gap between second and third.  If it’s large, the AQ teams will be the only ones heading east. If it’s tight (less than 25 is good, less than 10 is Tuco-quality) and things don’t get too wonky in other regions¹, the third-place team probably goes.

Two if they’re well ahead, three if it’s tight: C-M-S, Pomona-Pitzer, Willamette

Mideast

Usual disclaimer: last time regionals were at this year’s site, I was running for the home team.  Will my 88th place finish be topped? Only 87 runners will have a shot.

In recent years, the region has been assured of four or five teams qualifying.  As coaches in Baltimore and Pennsylvania have definitely told their teams, the Mideast could see as few as three teams waltzing at the Big Dance next weekend.  Four or five teams making it out of the region is not impossible (four is the likeliest number), but every team except for Haverford has shown enough weakness to risk being left home if they finish worse than third.

Between Johns Hopkins, Dickinson, Widener, and Carnegie Mellon, there are exactly zero wins over current top-25 teams.  Dickinson has home course advantage and the longest qualifying streak out of the quartet on its side; Hopkins beat Dickinson two weeks ago, Widener is hungry to make its first national meet, and CMU has by far the most wins over ranked teams, though some of that comes from being in a unique conference.

The teams that finish second and third in that group will make nationals.   The other two are at the mercy of the committee. Mind the gap.  

Locks: Haverford
Second and third are in, fourth and fifth sweat it out: Hopkins, Dickinson, Widener, Carnegie Mellon, Elizabethtown, Swarthmore

Central

The hottest region of the last two years.  There was at one point talk of putting the western Wisconsin schools in the Central to dilute the brutality of the Midwest; now, doing so would just make the Central the new national juggernaut.  The second auto-qualifying slot will depend on the status of Eli Horton’s calf, but either way, the top three teams are safe.  Whoever finishes fourth is a quintessential bubble team: current #4 Carleton beat Chicago and Hopkins at Oshkosh, but lost to Stout there.

Top four and in: St. Olaf, Loras, Central
Bubble teams: Carleton, St. Thomas, Luther

Great Lakes

Only two teams are ranked in the GL, which is usually a good indicator of a two-bid region.  HOWEVAH, Mount Union and John Carroll have looked good enough in October that the committee could smile upon a third place finish with a reasonably small number of points behind them and presumptive second-place finishers Calvin.  If one of these two somehow auto qualifies, look for the region to get three teams.

Locks: Wabash, Calvin
Mind the gap: Mount Union, John Carroll

Atlantic

Maybe the most confounding region for at-large bids.  St. Lawrence and Geneseo are going to Wilmington; no one else in the ATL is ranked within 20 spots of them.  The region has three teams—Cortland, Oneonta, and NYU ranked from 29 to 35, and RPI received votes in the last national poll. The region won’t get less than three teams; beyond that, again, I don’t claim to have ESPN.

Locks: St. Lawrence, Geneseo
Third’s in, fourth sweats, fifth prays: Cortland, Oneonta, NYU, RPI

Enjoy regionals, and follow along with us online! Also, if you’re going to be at the West, South/Southeast, Great Lakes, Central, or Atlantic meets, and you would like to help with coverage, please contact one of us.  

1. For example, seven teams making it out of New England or five qualifying from the Atlantic or Central. (Back to story)