D3 Women’s Regionals Preview

NEW ORLEANS – I’ll spare you the 350-word breakdown of the qualifying process; if you want that, check out the men’s preview.  Let’s get right to the regions.

Reminder: the first two teams from each region automatically qualify, and the committee picks the sixteen-at large teams.

Everything you need to know about the who, what, when, and where of regionals can be found at Regional Championships Central.

New England

What the Midwest region is to the men, New England is to the women.  They have three of the top six teams in the national rankings, and nine of the fourteen national championships this decade.  Middlebury, MIT, and Williams are those top-six teams.  They’ll make the meet as long as they finish in the top six at Mount Greylock on Saturday.  Amherst is currently ranked #4 in the region, but they only beat Colby and Tufts by 13 and 18 points, respectively, at NESCACs.  In a bit of a shocker last year, the committee did not take advantage of the new rules permitting an unlimited amount of teams to qualify.  That led to the somewhat unusual result of Colby qualifying three individuals, but no team.

The region will certainly get at least five teams again this year.  If unranked Wellesley is in 6th place and well back of fifth, that might be it.  Otherwise,  if Colby or Tufts is in sixth and the gap is a bit smaller, there’s a solid shot at six teams qualifying.

Locks: Middlebury, MIT, Williams
Top 5 and they’re in; 6th and hope it’s close: Amherst, Colby, Tufts, Wellesley

Atlantic

The only other region with three teams in the top ten of the national poll.   It’s hard to imagine St. Lawrence, Geneseo, or Oneonta missing the meet in any capacity. (It’s been a meteoric rise for national No. 10 Oneonta, who had never made nationals prior to last year)

Places 4-6 will be a little spicier. Cortland, NYU, and RIT haven’t raced each other since a clearly weakened Cortland squad raced RIT in the middle of September.  These three teams could finish in any conceivable order.  Though I profess no clairvoyance and the committee did give the Atlantic six teams in 2013, the safe money is on the region getting five teams to Wilmington.  None of these three are ranked in the top 25 nationally, so the committee could easily justify leaving any one of them home.

Locks: St. Lawrence, Geneseo, Oneonta
Bubble teams: Cortland, NYU, RIT

Central

I would absolutely watch a 30 for 30 on two nationally elite distance programs training in the same tiny frozen Minnesota town.  Do Carleton and St. Olaf bump into each other on runs and have snowball fights? Are alums from the two teams married to each other? Do the coaches get along or have they been feuding for decades?

No matter what the answers to those questions are, the two Northfield squads can book the same flight to Ohio for next Thursday or so.  They won’t miss the meet, and if they lock up the first two auto spots, the region will get at least one more team.

Whoever out of St. Thomas and St. Benedict finishes third can breathe easy.  The fourth should definitely cool down and go for a long run on Sunday morning, but will definitely be anxiously meeting somewhere and furiously mashing F5 when the national fields are announced on Sunday afternoon.

Maybe you noticed that tons of these Minnesota schools are named after saints; Hamline definitely did.  They’ve been hosting the hilariously named Meet of the UnSaintly for years.

Locks: Carleton, St. Olaf
Fighting for the third spot: St. Thomas, St. Benedict

Great Lakes

With five teams, the Great Lakes is tied for the third most national qualifying teams.  Three of those six can book their tickets to Wilmington: Calvin, Oberlin, and Mount Union.

I believe that even the most beneficial projections in other regions leave the Great Lakes with four teams at NCAAs.  That fourth team is either going to be Case Western Reserve or Hope.

Locks: Calvin, Oberlin, Mount Union
Fourth’s in, fifth’s out: Case Western, Hope

Mideast

It’s been more than a decade since someone other than Johns Hopkins or Dickinson won the Mideast region, and three years since someone other than Hopkins won nationals.  The Blue Jays are going to win the region, and the Red Devils are going to advance. The region will definitely get a third team.  Elizabethtown (coached by former Dickinson assistant Brian Falk) is the favorite for that third spot, but Haverford, Swarthmore, and Carnegie Mellon all are dreaming of nationals.  One of that group will likely make it, but only spot #3 is a lock.

Locks: Johns Hopkins, Dickinson
Third’s in, fourth’s on the bubble, fifth’s fingers’ are crossed: Elizabethtown, Haverford, Swarthmore, Carnegie Mellon

Midwest

There are two distinct tiers racing at Oshkosh on Saturday: the “don’t screw up” tier, and the “run for your life” tier.  Washington (Mo.), UW-La Crosse, and Chicago just have to perform adequately, i.e., top-5, to get in.  North Central (Ill.), Wheaton, and Oshkosh probably have to cross the same threshold, but it’s going to take them significantly more work to do so.  NCC and Wheaton are going to be particularly hungry—each program has only qualified for nationals twice in its history.

Top 5 go (unless the 4-5 gap is enormous): WashU, La Crosse, Chicago, North Central, Wheaton, Oshkosh

South/Southeast

Emory looked one of the best Southern teams of the last five years at the Oberlin Inter-Regional Rumble, but seemed a little more mortal at UAAs.  Either way, John Curtin’s Eagles are going to nationals.  The second spot (and there will only be two spots) is a little more wide open.  Centre, Christopher Newport, and Trinity (Texas) are all in different conferences, so they haven’t raced each other in a month or more.  All three have a shot at the AQ.

Locks: Emory
Losers leave town: Centre, Christopher Newport, Trinity

West

Willamette and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps are some of the safest locks in the country.  Whitworth is ranked #32 in the latest national poll, but that poll only includes one South/Southeast team, functionally bumping them down to #33.  Whitworth needs to finish third, look good doing it (an admittedly nebulous thing), and get some help from other regions.  That would entail the fifth place team from either the Midwest or Atlantic finishing dozens of points back of their respective fourth place teams.

Locks: Willamette, C-M-S
Bubble teams: Whitworth