Division I Men’s Individual Preview: Can Anyone Dethrone the King?

NEW ORLEANS – On our NCAA Division I men’s cross country fantasy draft podcast¹, Robert Johnson of LetsRun posited “I have this wild theory that people who were born in Kenya are better at running than people who were born in the United States.”

A scorching hot take if there ever were a cross country take that registered on the Scoville scale.  If you’re, say, a sophomore or junior in college who’s only been following the sport for four or five years, you might find yourself nodding in assent with the undercurrent of Rojo’s take: that foreigners dominate the NCAA men’s race.  There hasn’t been an American winner since Galen Rupp in 2008, and the last three years really have been dominated by internationals: four Americans² finished in the top ten in 2013 and 2011, and one, Ethiopian-born Girma Mecheso finished in the top ten in 2012. 

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Things haven’t always been this way, though. From 1989 to 2010, there were five, six, or seven Americans in the top ten every year except for ’91 and ’93.  58% of top-ten finishers in that period were American, compared to the paltry 30% of the last three years.

The historical anomalousness of recent years is even clearer at the top.  An American hasn’t won in five years—a drought that will very likely be prolonged until at least when Edward Cheserek graduates or becomes an American citizen. 

If Ches (or another non-American) wins this year, that will break a tie for the most consecutive years the men’s race was won by an international athlete. 

Here’s a fun tangent: with three decades of separation, Alberto Salazar is responsible for both streaks not being longer.  If he didn’t win the race himself in 1978 (as Kirk Reynolds told me in August, this happened because Henry Rono took a wrong turn in the snow), the 1979-1983 streak would be three years longer.  And if he didn’t coach Rupp to his ’08 win, the current streak would stand at six years instead of five.

All this is to say: the last few years don’t jibe with the history of NCAA XC.   It’s not quite fair to say that these things are cyclical, since the 22 years preceding 2011 were so American-heavy followed by a sharp drop in the last three seasons.  But it is fair to point out that the foreign-dominated last three years are the exception, not the norm.

The pendulum could be swinging back. Six of the top ten picks in our track media fantasy draft podcast were Americans, and if Ches, Anthony Rotich, Futsum Zienasellassie, or Pat Tiernan were to falter, picks 12-24 are all from the United States.

On to analysis of the top individuals.  As has been the case since 2008, the top 40 finishers on Saturday will be awarded All-America status. We’ll mostly be previewing runners with a shot at the top ten.

First up: The King.  Though Ed Cheserek losing to Maksim Korolev on Friday was a major surprise, it still has no bearing on his status as an enormous favorite in Terre Haute.  Questions about Cheserek’s chances of winning should be parried with queries about the Pope’s preferred sect of Christianity and a bear’s preferred activities in the forest.  The Oregon sophomore is about as big as a favorite as there can be in our sport.

(This is where you’re legally obligated to say that the same thing was true about Lawi Lalang in 2012 and Kennedy Kithuka in 2013)

If 2013 nationals or 2014 Pac-12s are any indication, Saturday’s projected nasty weather won’t give Cheserek any pause. In fact, like in those two foul-weather races, it could cause him to craft a strategy where he breaks away particularly early to avoid any late chicanery in the mud.

If Ches goes early (and I think he will) the two numbers to watch are 29:00 and the margin of victory.  Only seven runners have ever broken 29 for 10k at nationals: Kithuka, Lalang, Sam Chelanga, Boaz Cheboiywo, Meb Keflezighi, Mathews Motshwarateu, and Henry Rono.

Rono did it in all three of his wins, and Lalang and Chelanga are the only runners to do it in Terre Haute.  Chelanga’s 28:41.3 is the LaVern Gibson course record.

Even with a likely slower time, Ches can still make history on the clock.  His 18-second win last year was just shy of one of the fattest margins ever; only four runners have won by thirty seconds or more.  Bob Kennedy’s 40.8 second win over Gary Stolz in 1992 remains the most dominant individual performance ever.

Cheserek’s biggest challengers are two guys with one loss each this year: Stanford’s Maksim Korolev and Villanova’s Patrick Tiernan. In his two-plus years on the national scene, Korolev has proven to be one of the most fearless runners we have. 

Cheserek likely had no interest in winning last Friday’s West Region, but Korolev was the only runner with the opportunistic verve to actually take the win.  And now he and Lawi Lalang are the two-person “I Outkicked Ches” club.  Good club to be in.

Korolev also finished third at nationals a year ago, and won Wisconsin in October.  He clearly has the the second-best résumé of anyone toeing the line on Saturday, and is the favorite to finish as the top American for the second year in a row.  The last runner to win that status in consecutive years was Jorge Torres, who was the first American across the line in 2000, 2001, and 2002. (Chris Derrick was the top US finisher in 2009 and 2011, losing to Luke Puskedra in between)

If Korolev finishes solidly in the top ten, it’s time to put to bed the talk of the demons that dragged him to two last-place NCAA track finishes and a few scattered bombs at Heps and nationals.  Safely navigating this weekend would mean that Korolev’s worst race of the last two cross country seasons would be an utterly respectable ninth-place Pac-12 finish.

Tiernan’s cross country credentials are a little bit foggier, though if his dominant performance at Washington in early October is any indication, he’s the second or third best runner lining up.  The Villanova Aussie beat Futsum Zienasellassie by 20 seconds to win at UW, and further down the results, he beat Stanford’s Garrett Sweatt by 40 seconds.  Korolev hasn’t beaten his Cardinal teammate by more than 40 seconds all year.

Tiernan did lose to Penn State’s Matt Fischer at his regional meet, but that seems more Cheserekian than concerning.  Fischer was racing all-out for a bubble team that needed every point, while Tiernan knew that the Wildcats had an automatic bid sewn up.

Two men who could easily break into the top three on Saturday are Anthony Rotich and Zienasellassie.  The pair has had opposite trajectories.  Rotich won more NCAA track championships (two) than any distance runner other than Cheserek in 2014, but has looked a little spotty this fall.  He won the Mountain Region after finishing only seventh in a thin pre-nats race. 

Futsum struggled mightily with injuries in track, running over 15 minutes twice for 5k indoors.  But he’s been clearly back to his old self on the trails, taking first or second in every race this fall.  Tiernan, Korolev, and Rotich have each beaten him once; his race with Korolev at Wisconsin was the best head-to-head race of the year so far.

Korolev’s biggest challenges for first American this weekend will likely come from two men who beat him at their conference meet, and a third who became American this year.  Eric Jenkins and Joe Rosa have had the best cross country seasons of their careers, and Stanley Kebenei  is actually ahead of where he was last year.  En route to taking sixth in the nation in 2013, Kebenei finished 23rd at Wisconsin and second in the SEC.  This fall, he was 6th at Wisco and won his conference.

A major storyline coming into the season was how Rosa and Jenkins would handle returning to cross country after multiyear absences.  Jenkins’s comeback has gone like gangbusters, as he’s only lost to Cheserek, Korolev, and Blake Theroux.  Behind Cheserek, he’s been the second most consistently successful runner on a big stage this fall. A few athletes are undefeated, but none of them have faced the competition that Jenkins has.

Rosa’s comeback has been a little more halting.  He sandwiched a very solid third-place (trailing only the Oregon duo) at Pac-12s with an 8th at Wisconsin and a 6th at regionals.

If we’re mentioning Rosa as a top-ten contender, we have to mention Aaron Nelson (Washington), Chris Walden (Cal), and Scott Fauble (Portland) all of whom either beat Rosa or finished right behind him at regionals.  Nelson beat Rosa at Wisconsin, Walden beat him at regionals, and Fauble beat him at both races BUT lost to Nelson at Wisconsin.

One team that hasn’t had an athlete mentioned is Colorado. The last team to win NCAAs without a runner in the top ten was… well, Colorado, in 2006. Jake Hurysz, Ben Saarel (8th overall in 2013, and not the Buffs’ first runner once before or since), and Blake Theroux all have a distinct whiff of top-ten on them; how many will actually do it?.

If you’re looking for a dark horse, a man who hasn’t lost a race all year isn’t a bad place to start.  That’s true about Elon’s Luis Vargas and Oklahoma State’s Kirubel Erassa.

We covered sixteen athletes in this article, and the biggest lock of all is that someone not covered will plow through the Indiana muck on Saturday and surprise us.